```{r include = FALSE}
# OPTIONAL: Set a more color blind friendly palette 
palette("Okabe-Ito")
scale_colour_discrete <- function(...) scale_colour_manual(values = palette())
scale_fill_discrete   <- function(...) scale_fill_manual(values = palette())

knitr::opts_chunk$set(
  collapse = TRUE, 
  warning = FALSE,
  message = FALSE,
  fig.height = 2.75, 
  fig.width = 4.25,
  fig.env='figure',
  fig.pos = 'h',
  fig.align = 'center')
```


\



## Notes: Inferential v. Predictive Models



<center>
<img src="https://kegrinde.github.io/stat253_coursenotes/images/MLDiagram2.jpg"/>
</center>


**CONTEXT**

- **world = supervised learning**       
    We want to model some output variable $y$ using a set of *potential* predictors ($x_1, x_2, ..., x_p$).

- **task = regression**       
    $y$ is quantitative

- **model = linear regression**       
    We'll assume that the relationship between $y$ and ($x_1, x_2, ..., x_p$) can be represented by
    
    $$y = \beta_0 + \beta_1 x_1 + \beta_2 x_2 + ... + \beta_p x_p + \varepsilon$$




**Inferential v. Predictive Models (Unit 2 motivation)**

In model building, the decision of which predictors to use depends upon our goal. 

**Inferential models**        

- Goal: Explore & test hypotheses about a specific relationship.
- Predictors: Defined by the goal.
- Example: An economist wants to understand how salaries ($y$) vary by age ($x_1$) while controlling for education level ($x_2$).


**Predictive models**

- Goal: Produce the "best" possible predictions of $y$.
- Predictors: Any combination of predictors that help us meet this goal.
- Example: A mapping app wants to provide users with quality estimates of arrival time ($y$) utilizing any useful predictors (eg: time of day, distance, route, speed limit, weather, day of week, traffic radar...)





**UNIT 2 GOAL**        

**Model selection** algorithms can *help* us build a **predictive model** of $y$ using a set of potential predictors ($x_1, x_2, ..., x_p$).
There are 3 general approaches to this task:   

1. **Variable selection (today)**    
    Identify a *subset* of predictors to use in our model of $y$.

2. **Shrinkage / regularization (next class)**    
    *Shrink* / regularize the coefficients of all predictors toward or to 0.

3. **Dimension reduction (later in the semester)**    
    *Combine* the predictors into a smaller set of new predictors.








## Exercises {-}

Let's build a **predictive model** of `height` in inches using one or more of 12 possible predictors. Other than `age` and `weight`, these are circumferences measured in cm.

```{r}
# Load packages
library(tidyverse)
library(tidymodels)

# Load data
humans <- read.csv("https://kegrinde.github.io/stat253_coursenotes/data/bodyfat1.csv")
names(humans)
```






A **heat map** displays correlations for each pair of variables in our dataset. Not only is `height` correlated with multiple predictors, the predictors are correlated with one another (mulicollinear)! We don't need *all* of them in our model.


```{r fig.width = 6, fig.height = 6}
# Get the correlation matrix
library(reshape2)
cor_matrix <- cor(humans)
cor_matrix[lower.tri(cor_matrix)] <- NA
cor_matrix <- cor_matrix %>% 
  melt() %>% 
  na.omit() %>% 
  rename(correlation = value)

# Visualize the correlation for each pair of variables
ggplot(cor_matrix, aes(x = Var1, y = Var2, fill = correlation)) +
  geom_tile(color = "white") +
  scale_fill_gradient2(
    low = "blue", high = "red", mid = "white", 
    midpoint = 0, limit = c(-1,1)) +
  labs(x = "", y = "") +
  theme_minimal() + 
  theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 60, hjust = 1)) + 
  coord_fixed()
```






*As a group*, you'll design a **variable selection algorithm** to pick which of the 12 predictors to use in a predictive model of `height`. 

This will NOT be perfect!

The goal is to:

- Have fun and work together!
- Tap into your *intuition* for key questions and challenges in variable selection.
- *Deepen* your understanding of "algorithms" and "tuning parameters" by designing and communicating your own.


## Exercise 1: Design your own algorithm (15 minutes)

- Do not use any materials from outside this class.

- Document your algorithm in words (not code) in this [google doc](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1OD1Xv6SFp9pgxSDEB_PKuOzy83xEaFvJZHhLaYf2Nqc/edit?usp=sharing).

- Your algorithm must:
    - be *clear* to other humans
    - be clear to a *machine* (cannot utilize context)
    - lead to a *single* model that uses 0-12 of our predictors
    - define and provide directions for selecting any tuning parameters

- Implement as many steps of your algorithm as possible in the time allotted. You can modify the code below to build and evaluate the models in your algorithm:

```{r}
# STEP 1: model specification
lm_spec <- linear_reg() %>% 
  set_mode("regression") %>% 
  set_engine("lm")
  
# STEP 2: model estimation
height_model_1 <- lm_spec %>% 
  fit(height ~ age + weight + neck + chest + abdomen + hip + thigh + knee + ankle + biceps + forearm + wrist, data = humans)

# Check it out
height_model_1 %>% 
  tidy()

# CV MAE
set.seed(253)
lm_spec %>% 
  fit_resamples(
    height ~ age + weight + neck + chest + abdomen + hip + thigh + knee + ankle + biceps + forearm + wrist,
    resamples = vfold_cv(humans, v = 10), 
    metrics = metric_set(mae)
  ) %>% 
  collect_metrics()
```
    


## Exercise 2: Test another group's algorithm (5 minutes)

Try to implement the next algorithm below yours (or the first algorithm if your group's is last). Think: Are the steps clear? What are the drawbacks to the algorithm?

```{r}

```


